Gold retreated to $3,294.70 on July 9, 2025, marking a third consecutive session of losses as President Trump extended his reciprocal tariff deadline to August 1. The extension provided temporary market relief but maintained underlying uncertainty that has supported precious metals throughout 2025. Silver slipped 0.69% to $36.50 despite trading near 13-year highs, while platinum eased from overnight 10-year peaks to $1,355-1,360. The dollar index edged up 0.06% to 97.57, adding pressure to metals already facing profit-taking after remarkable year-to-date gains of 38.85% for gold and 18.28% for silver.

Technical indicators flash oversold signals for gold and silver

Gold's RSI plunged to 41.845, dropping below the neutral 50 level and signaling oversold conditions on the daily timeframe. The metal trades below all major moving averages, with the 20-day MA at $3,234.68 and the 200-day at $3,335.73, confirming the short-term bearish structure. Key support emerged at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $3,297.02, with the next major support zone at $3,226-3,203. Silver's technical picture appears even more extreme, with RSI at 24.839 - deeply oversold territory that historically precedes sharp bounces. The metal's Stochastic RSI sits at zero, suggesting maximum oversold conditions rarely sustained for extended periods.

Platinum maintained its bullish breakout structure despite Tuesday's pullback, with RSI near 60 confirming momentum without reaching overbought extremes. The metal's golden cross pattern - where the 50-day MA crossed above the 200-day - projects measured move targets of $1,600-1,650. MACD indicators show gold at -15.75 and silver at -0.147, both in sell territory but approaching potential reversal zones. Chart patterns reveal gold forming a massive ascending triangle with resistance at $3,500, while silver's 13-year cup formation nears completion pending a weekly close above $25.00.

Options activity surges as volatility expectations rise

Trading volumes reflected heightened market activity, with gold options averaging over 40,000 contracts daily in June 2025, maintaining open interest near 900,000 lots. The most significant development came from Nasdaq and LBMA's announcement expanding their LBMA-i Service to include platinum and palladium data starting July 9, providing unprecedented transparency into OTC precious metals markets. Silver weekly options jumped 32% year-over-year to 3,471 contracts daily, while platinum achieved record open interest of 105,554 futures contracts on June 13.

COT data reveals cautious institutional positioning despite record prices. Non-commercial traders hold 195,004 net long gold contracts (58.9% of open interest) while commercials maintain 230,560 net short positions - typical hedging behavior. The -0.88 correlation between hedge fund positioning and price moves in 2025 suggests little speculative froth. ETF flows turned decisively positive with $30 billion in Q1 2025 inflows adding 322 tonnes to holdings. Physical market premiums remain elevated with American Gold Eagles commanding $147-177 over spot and silver eagles at $7-9 premiums, indicating robust retail demand despite high prices.

Central banks maintain aggressive accumulation pace

Central bank gold purchases reached 244 tonnes in Q1 2025, 24% above the 5-year quarterly average, with Poland leading at 67 tonnes year-to-date. China officially added 13 tonnes in Q1, though actual holdings likely exceed 5,000 tonnes versus reported 2,292 tonnes. Goldman Sachs estimates monthly global accumulation at 80 tonnes (~$8.5 billion at current prices). The divergence between paper and physical markets intensified as Shanghai gold premiums flipped to -$6/oz discounts from the historical +$7.75 average, signaling weak Chinese wholesale demand even as Western retail buyers pay persistent premiums.

Gold lease rates spiked to 3.25% from 0.08% in January, indicating funding market stress and physical scarcity as institutions borrow gold to raise dollar liquidity. COMEX warehouse stocks remain elevated at 37 million ounces despite H1 2025 stand-for-deliveries exceeding 24 million ounces (746.5 tonnes). The disconnect between ample warehouse supplies and tight funding conditions suggests complex market dynamics where paper and physical markets send conflicting signals.

Dollar strength and yields cap precious metals upside

The dollar index at 97.57 sits well below its 52-week high of 110.18 but has stabilized after falling 7.05% year-over-year. Ten-year Treasury yields eased marginally to 4.40%, providing limited support as elevated real rates continue pressuring non-yielding assets. Related markets showed mixed signals with the S&P 500 near record highs up 7% year-to-date while the VIX surged 158% in 2025, reflecting tariff-related uncertainties. Bitcoin held steady around $109,000, maintaining its role as an alternative store of value alongside traditional precious metals.

Cross-asset correlations on July 9 maintained expected patterns - negative for metals versus dollar and yields, mixed against equities as risk-on sentiment limited safe-haven demand. Oil prices at $68.20/barrel (WTI) showed modest gains, maintaining moderate positive correlation with industrial metals. The unusual divergence saw precious metals declining despite elevated VIX readings typically supportive for safe-haven assets, suggesting profit-taking dominated after exceptional year-to-date gains.

Trading setups target key technical levels

For day traders, gold's approach to $3,297 Fibonacci support offers potential bounce entry with stops below $3,280 targeting initial resistance at $3,315-3,320. Silver's extreme oversold conditions at $36.50 present compelling risk-reward for mean reversion trades targeting $37.00-37.50, with stops below the recent $35.29 low. Platinum's consolidation around $1,355 after breaking decade-long resistance at $1,000 suggests accumulation before the next leg higher toward $1,415 resistance and eventual $1,600 targets.

Swing traders should monitor gold's massive ascending triangle pattern for resolution above $3,500 or support at the triangle base near $3,200. Silver's multi-year cup formation requires weekly closes above $37.50 to confirm continuation toward $40-42 measured move targets. Options traders can exploit elevated implied volatility through ratio spreads or butterflies centered on key technical levels. The extension of Trump's tariff deadline to August 1 maintains underlying support for precious metals as haven assets while allowing short-term profit-taking after remarkable 2025 gains.