Silver Price Prediction: 2022, 2023 and Beyond
Silver Price Prediction: 2022, 2023 and Beyond
Expert analysis and forecasts for silver's price trajectory with detailed methodology and market insights
The silver market has experienced considerable volatility over the past several years. Many predictions by market analysts have missed the mark as a result.
On balance, I have been bullish on silver since the beginning of 2016. Over that time, silver did climb back to the $20/oz range but struggled to surpass that level. Needless to say, I was early with my optimism.
Through my extensive experience in the bullion industry, I've witnessed both bear markets and bull markets in silver. I've also seen the sideways price action that usually characterizes the intervening periods.
I will explain my silver price forecast for the next two years (2022 and 2023) as well as looking farther out to 2030. I will provide my reasoning for these predictions and share some insights into my forecasting methods.
Complete Analysis
For Clues About Future Price of Silver, Look to the Recent Past
In the nearly 15 years since the global financial crisis in 2008, silver prices have experienced a bit of a roller coaster ride. After peaking in 2011 just shy of $50 per troy ounce, silver prices were mired in a bear market for the next nine years. Prices bottomed out around $14 per ounce at the beginning of the covid-19 pandemic in March 2020.
Investor Perspective
I can sympathize with the pain of investors who have been holding silver throughout that decade-long slump. Volatile markets can be difficult to stomach. Emotional responses such as "FOMO"—fear of missing out—may become overwhelming when other investments are outperforming.
Nonetheless, with a tangible asset like silver, lower prices are always an opportunity to accumulate more physical ounces. This is especially true when the long-term bullish thesis for silver has not actually been invalidated. For those interested in building positions, consider opportunities to purchase silver bullion during favorable market conditions.
Silver Price Prediction for 2022
If we look at silver's performance over the past five years, it would appear that a new bull market for silver began about mid-way through 2020.
At the time of writing, the silver market has given back a portion of those strong gains. Prices are back near the $22/oz level, and investor sentiment has fallen in response to the price decline.
2022 Challenges
- Stock market volatility impact
- Potential portfolio liquidations
- Global recession concerns
- Industrial demand uncertainty
Market Dynamics
- Volatile markets drive some selling
- Investors cover losses elsewhere
- Predictable price pressure reaction
- Industrial demand could suffer
I'm not convinced that silver is quite ready to break out of its slump yet this year, especially amid the up-and-down movement of the stock market in 2022. Volatile markets mean some investors will sell silver to cover losses elsewhere in their investment portfolios.
2022 Target
My silver price target for year-end in 2022 is $21 per troy ounce. That's slightly below the current price (about 1 percent lower), and well off of silver's previous high for the year. Monitor these movements with live silver price tracking.
Silver Price Prediction for 2023
In my estimation, the challenges facing the world economy aren't going to be resolved quickly. Certainly not by 2023.
Initially, that likely means more bad news for silver. We could get as low as the $17/oz handle at some point. But that type of downturn for silver will most likely be—to steal a buzzword from the Federal Reserve regarding inflation—"transitory."
Short-term Challenges
I do expect more periodic struggles for silver over the next 18 months. Even as a silver bull, I must caution you that nothing you can own has a price that goes up in a straight line all the time.
- Not silver, not real estate
- Not Bitcoin, not even the S&P 500
- Periodic volatility is normal
- Patience required for long-term gains
Asymmetric Upside
However, as an asset silver has an asymmetric upside relative to its downside. In other words, silver prices could fall by a modest amount in the future, but they could rise by a tremendous amount.
- Limited downside potential
- Significant upside opportunity
- Supply deficit conditions
- Industrial demand growth
Realistic Expectations
Other bullish predictions for silver have called for new all-time highs of $50 per ounce, or even triple-digit prices over $100/oz. The market will reach these milestones eventually, but such forecasts are overly optimistic in my view. We still haven't meaningfully broken the $30/oz barrier during this current cycle.
Silver Price Prediction for 2030
I still have good reasons to believe that silver is an undervalued asset relative to other investments. The same is largely true for gold prices, but silver is subject to considerably higher volatility than gold.
Market Cycle Principles
- Gold and silver markets are cyclical
- Cycles cover multiple years
- Prices constantly fluctuate
- Never move in straight lines
Current Position
- On cusp of new bull market phase
- Higher prices expected ahead
- Still relatively undervalued
- Long-term growth potential
Given these parameters, in my view silver is on the cusp of entering another bull market phase of this current market cycle. This simply means silver prices are expected to be higher in the coming years.
2030 Long-term Target
My price target for silver by 2030 is $35 per troy ounce. On a historical basis, and in comparison to other major investment assets, silver would still be relatively undervalued at this price level.
Supply Response Considerations
I don't rule out the potential for a more explosive rise in prices closer to the $50 per ounce range. Remember, this would represent record high silver prices.
But we must also consider that the silver mining supply would likely rise in response to prices sustaining above $30/oz. Higher silver mine production would have some countervailing effect on a bullish silver market. The same is true if energy prices, like natural gas and crude oil, continue to rise.
How My Silver Price Prediction Is Calculated
It's worth acknowledging that all forecasts are going to be imperfect, as are the tools and indicators that inform them. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Conservative Approach
I tend to make conservative forecasts—particularly compared to other experts in the precious metals space. This inclination is informed by my firsthand experience in the silver market for the past decade. I have seen many gold price predictions fail to materialize time and again.
Two Major Principles
1. Market Cycles
Financial markets tend to be cyclical. Although the time span of each cycle can vary, this concept is useful for evaluating the general direction of various asset prices.
Current Assessment: We are just now entering the next bullish phase for silver.
2. Relative Value Analysis
No financial asset exists in a vacuum. It's always edifying to compare the relative values of other key "outside markets" to determine if silver is "overbought" or "oversold."
Key Indicators I Monitor
Gold-Silver Ratio (GSR)
This metric is simply the gold price divided by the silver price. It indicates how many ounces of silver it would take to buy one ounce of gold. Historically, when the gold-silver ratio exceeds 80:1, the ratio tends to move back into silver's favor.
It wouldn't be terribly surprising to see the GSR correct sharply to the 40:1 range—as it did in 2010 as well as the early 1980s. For reference, even if the gold price doesn't budge from its current level, this would put the silver price above $45/oz.
Silver Price Moving Averages
Checking moving averages is another useful tool. Although moving averages are a lagging indicator, they are a good way to gauge broader trends and key technical levels.
Medium-term moving averages:
- 50-day moving average: $23.13
- 100-day moving average: $23.75
- 200-day moving average: $23.53
U.S. Money Supply (M2)
As a general rule, when the supply of money in a country increases, commodity prices and the price of tangible assets tend to rise. The logic here makes it clear why silver can act as an inflation hedge.
Silver in particular tends to rally right before the U.S. money supply surges, undoubtedly due to silver's long history of having monetary characteristics.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
The DXY index measures the U.S. dollar's relative value against a basket of major peer currencies. During periods of rapid economic expansion, there's normally a negative correlation between silver price and USD.
However, during economic downturns, both the dollar and silver can move upward in tandem as safe-haven assets.
U.S. Stock Market Indices
The three major stock indices provide broader market context:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (blue chip stocks)
- S&P 500 (broad large cap index)
- Nasdaq 100 (technology sector focus)
When equity prices struggle for a prolonged time, investors typically turn to safer assets such as silver and gold.
What's Driving the Silver Price
The three key factors discussed below will have the greatest impact on the price of silver over the next 7–10 years:
1. Portfolio Hedging
Hedging against inflation and recession
Equities have already experienced significant losses in 2022, and they may fall much farther. If the world economy plunges into recession, stocks will likely trade lower or sideways for the following two- to three-year stretch.
Silver will retain more of its value compared to stocks and other risk assets, helping insulate portfolios from the worst carnage. Consider adding silver for portfolio protection.
2. Green Technology
Growth of solar energy and electric vehicles
Silver is an essential component in virtually all electronic applications. Beyond established uses, silver plays an important role in future industries:
- Photovoltaic cells in solar panels
- Electric vehicle components
- Most efficient electrical conductor
- Green technology applications
3. Gold Price Correlation
Silver tends to track gold prices
The prices of gold and silver frequently move in the same direction. The current macroeconomic landscape is increasingly favorable to gold, with gold prices likely to hit new all-time highs above $2,000 per ounce in the next two years.
Silver will likely follow a similar path, potentially outperforming gold and closing the GSR gap.
Industrial Demand Growth
Both India and China have already made large commitments to purchase billions of dollars' worth of solar panels. Solar capacity worldwide is projected to grow dramatically by 2035. Electric vehicles require even more silver than traditional cars, making industrial demand a key driver for higher silver prices over the next five years.
Educational Disclaimer: The information provided herein is intended solely for educational purposes. Any forward-looking statements about silver price forecasts should not be used or construed as investment advice. Do your own due diligence. Please consult a professional financial advisor for more information about investing before any investment decision. Past performance does not guarantee future results.